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Prediction for CME (2026-08-04T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-04T13:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47949/-1
CME Note: Arrival characterized by an initial increase in B_total from 4.77nT to 7.99nT, increasing to a peak B_total 19.08nT by 2026-08-08T07:51Z. B_z persists northward at the start of the signature, but sustains southward starting after 2026-08-08T08:27Z and has reached a peak southward B_z -17.93nT at 2026-08-08T11:43Z. Speed rises from ~295 km/s to ~360 km/s by 2026-08-08T09:41Z. Temperature and density increase slowly as well with speed. CME visible to the NE in STEREO A COR2 and the NW in GOES CCOR-1. Not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real-time due to a data gap. The source is likely an eruption from approximately N25W30 with dimming, moving field lines, and post-eruptive arcades best seen in SDO AIA 193 and STEREO A EUV 195 starting around 2026-08-04T12:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-08-08T05:54Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-08T10:20Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note: 
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME
Lead Time: 77.72 hour(s)
Difference: -4.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-08-05T00:11Z
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